Ground-based Observations of Temporal Variation of Cosmic Ray Spectrum during Forbush Decreases

Observations of temporary Forbush decreases (FDs) in the Galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) flux due to the passage of solar storms are useful for space-weather studies and alerts. Here, we introduce techniques that use global networks of ground-based neutron monitors and muon detectors to measure variations of GCR rigidity spectra in space during FDs by (1) fitting count rate decreases for power-law rigidity spectra in space with anisotropy up to second order and (2) using the “leader fraction” derived from a single neutron monitor. We demonstrate that both provide consistent results for hourly spectral index variations for five major FDs, and they agree with daily space-based data when available from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer. We have also made the neutron monitor leader fraction publicly available in real time. This work verifies that ground-based observations can be used to precisely monitor GCR spectral variation over a wide range of rigidities during space-weather events, with results in real time or from short-term postanalysis.

Recommended citation: Mitthumsiri, W. et al. (2025). "Ground-based Observations of Temporal Variation of Cosmic Ray Spectrum during Forbush Decreases" ApJL, 986, L7. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/add7d1